Forecasting the global shortage of physicians: an economic- and needs-based approach
Richard M Scheffler, Jenny X Liu, Yohannes Kinfu, Mario R Dal Poz
Volume 86, Number 7, July 2008, 516-523
Table 4. Projected supply of, need for and demand for physicians in 2015 for countries in the WHO African Region
| Country | Supply |
Needs-based model |
Demand-based model |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (count) | (count) | Surplus (+) or shortage (–)a | (count) | Surplus (+) or shortage (–)b | |||
| Algeria | 97 739 | 20 896 | 76 843 | 30 682 | 67 057 | ||
| Angola | 2 593 | 11 493 | –8 900 | 1 309 | 1 284 | ||
| Benin | 490 | 6 154 | –5 665 | 905 | –415 | ||
| Botswana | 975 | 927 | 48 | 521 | 454 | ||
| Burkina Faso | 1 197 | 9 699 | –8 503 | 679 | 517 | ||
| Burundi | 449 | 5 825 | –5 376 | 628 | –179 | ||
| Cameroon | 822 | 10 447 | –9 625 | 1 539 | –717 | ||
| Cape Verde | 105 | 345 | –240 | 242 | –137 | ||
| Central African Republic | 201 | 2 550 | –2 349 | 210 | –10 | ||
| Comoros | 322 | 559 | –237 | 142 | 180 | ||
| Congo | 3 115 | 2 985 | 130 | 1 511 | 1 605 | ||
| Côte d’Ivoire | 2 975 | 11 825 | –8 850 | 1 988 | 987 | ||
| Equatorial Guinea | 86 | 344 | –258 | 296 | –209 | ||
| Ethiopia | 4 916 | 53 306 | –48 390 | 2 967 | 1 949 | ||
| Gabon | 188 | 881 | –692 | 647 | –459 | ||
| Gambia | 23 | 1 036 | –1 014 | 76 | –54 | ||
| Ghana | 3 414 | 14 574 | –11 159 | 2 097 | 1 317 | ||
| Guinea | 1 552 | 6 524 | –4 972 | 1 703 | –151 | ||
| Guinea-Bissau | 504 | 1 170 | –666 | 393 | 111 | ||
| Kenya | 6 105 | 24 248 | –18 143 | 7 602 | –1 497 | ||
| Lesotho | 51 | 957 | –906 | 118 | –67 | ||
| Madagascar | 2 376 | 13 065 | –10 690 | 2 916 | –540 | ||
| Malawi | 644 | 8 778 | –8 134 | 413 | 231 | ||
| Mali | 890 | 9 927 | –9 037 | 1 038 | –148 | ||
| Mauritania | 599 | 2 188 | –1 589 | 392 | 207 | ||
| Mauritius | 2 612 | 737 | 1 875 | 1 572 | 1 040 | ||
| Mozambique | 277 | 12 901 | –12 624 | 683 | –407 | ||
| Namibia | 2 623 | 1 233 | 1 389 | 756 | 1 867 | ||
| Niger | 802 | 10 580 | –9 778 | 507 | 295 | ||
| Nigeria | 72 123 | 88 298 | –16 176 | 36 580 | 35 543 | ||
| Rwanda | 395 | 6 179 | –5 784 | 656 | –261 | ||
| Senegal | 1 819 | 7 977 | –6 158 | 1 396 | 423 | ||
| Sierra Leone | 759 | 3 784 | –3 025 | 424 | 335 | ||
| South Africa | 35 882 | 26 282 | 9 599 | 33 543 | 2 338 | ||
| Swaziland | 537 | 544 | –8 | 168 | 369 | ||
| Togo | 433 | 4 305 | –3 873 | 720 | –288 | ||
| Uganda | 2 282 | 22 999 | –20 717 | 2 315 | –33 | ||
| Zambia | 433 | 7 594 | –7 162 | 1 518 | –1 086 | ||
| Zimbabwe | 1 659 | 7 574 | –5 915 | 2 363 | –705 | ||
a Surplus (shortage) is calculated as supply minus need at means of predicted values.b Surplus (shortage) is calculated as supply minus demand at means of predicted values.