Bulletin of the World Health Organization

Cardiovascular risk factor trends and potential for reducing coronary heart disease mortality in the United States of America

Simon Capewell, Earl S Ford, Janet B Croft, Julia A Critchley, Kurt J Greenlund & Darwin R Labarthe

Volume 88, Number 2, February 2010, 120-130

Table 6. Number of CHD deathsa in 2010 as a change from 2000 baseline, by sex and age group, under three cardiovascular risk factor scenarios, United States of America

Age group, in years Scenario
Recent trends continue
HP2010 targets are achieved
All achieve low-risk stratum values
Men Women Both sexes Men Women Both sexes Men Women Both sexes
25–34 +55 +305 +355 –225 –75 –300 –1 000 –1 000 –2 000
35–44 +380 +1 000 +2 000 –3 000 –2 000 –4 000 –8 000 –4 000 –12 000
45–54 +2 000 +115 +2 000 –16 000 –5 000 –20 000 –35 000 –11 005 –46 000
55–64 –2 000 –1 000 –1 000 –27 000 –16 000 –44 000 –57 000 –31 000 –89 000
65–74 –10 000 +1 000 –9 000 –28 000 –25 000 –52 000 –62 000 –44 000 –106 000
75–84 –7 000 –5 000 –12 000 –25 000 –37 000 –62 000 –67 000 –53 000 –120 000
Total –16 000 –3 000 –19 000 –105 000 –83 000 –188 000 –230 000 –142 000 –372 000

CHD, coronary heart disease; HP2010, Healthy People 2010.
a Rounded to nearest 1000.