Bulletin of the World Health Organization

Scale-up of a decentralized HIV treatment programme in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: does rapid expansion affect patient outcomes?

Portia C Mutevedzi, Richard J Lessells, Tom Heller, Till Bärnighausen, Graham S Cooke & Marie-Louise Newell

Volume 88, Number 8, August 2010, 593-600

Table 3. Risk factors for death within 12 months in patients initiated on antiretroviral therapy from October 2004 to September 2007 in a decentralized HIV treatment programme in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Variable HR 95% CI AHR 95% CI
Sex
Male 1.62 1.49–1.77 1.33 1.06–1.67
Weighta
1-kg increase 0.95 0.94–0.96 0.96 0.94–0.99
CD4 count (cells/µl)
> 200 1
150–200 0.74 0.44–1.24 0.70 0.42–1.16
100–149 1.02 0.63–1.67 0.84 0.52–1.36
50–99 1.82 1.16–2.86 1.42 0.91–2.21
< 50 3.17 2.08–4.84 2.02 1.33–3.08
Missing 1.20 0.69–2.06 0.92 0.53–1.60
WHO clinical stageb
1 or 2 1
3 or 4 3.25 1.98–5.34 2.13 1.29–3.51
Missing 1.68 1.01–2.82 1.44 0.86–2.42
Haemoglobin (g/dL)
≥ 8 1
< 8 4.10 3.12–5.37 2.72 2.03–3.63
Missing 1.31 0.96–1.77 1.04 0.67–1.59
Creatinine (μmol/L)
≤ 120 1
121–240 2.72 1.86–3.98 1.66 1.13–2.44
> 240 9.24 4.74–17.99 2.88 1.42–5.81
Missing 1.27 0.93–1.73 1.28 0.84–1.97
Education
Secondary 1
Primary 1.36 0.84–2.20 1.14 0.71–1.86
None 1.74 1.05–2.87 1.81 1.10–2.99
Missing 0.78 0.35–1.75 0.63 0.28–1.50
Not matched 1.39 0.99–1.94 1.30 0.93–1.83
Half-year of initiation
Oct 04–Mar 05 1
Apr 05–Sep 05 0.40 0.22–0.72 0.39 0.21–0.70
Oct 05–Mar 06 0.56 0.35–0.88 0.53 0.33–0.84
Apr 06–Sep 06 0.40 0.25–0.65 0.46 0.28–0.75
Oct 06–Mar 07 0.57 0.37–0.90 0.53 0.34–0.83
Apr 07–Sep 07 0.61 0.40–0.93 0.61 0.40–0.95

AHR, adjusted hazards ratio; CI, confidence interval; HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; HR, hazards ratio.

a Weight assessed as a time-varying covariate.

b Staging category at time of ART initiation in accordance with WHO staging criteria.24