Bulletin of the World Health Organization

Global burden of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis as a sequel to pulmonary tuberculosis

David W Denning, Alex Pleuvry & Donald C Cole

Volume 89, Number 12, December 2011, 864-872

Table 2. Papers (chronological) on 12-month survival among pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients after treatment

Reference Design Population Mortality/Survival
Lillebaek (1999)22 Retrospective prognostic cohort – not inception, as differential times since first diagnosis and clinical presentations. Four-year follow-up Danish population (all 350 cases with information notified in country), mix of older Danes and immigrants across ages. PTB and EPTB Overall 45/350 (12.9%) died during treatment often up to one year and overall 51/350 (14.6%). Culture positive PTB died during treatment (17/210 or 8.1%). Overall 19.7% mortality and 19/350 not available for post Rx FU. Maximum post-treatment mortality = 2%
Connolly (1999)25 Prognostic cohort, two-year follow up, 78/403 (19%) left the area Hlabisa health district of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa primarily rural, follow-up of 403 cured TB patients (53% HIV-infected) 58/403 (14%) died, mortality was four times higher among HIV-infected patients (17.8 and 4.4 deaths per 100 PYO for HIV-infected and uninfected patients, respectively; P < 0.0001). Probability of survival at 24 months was estimated at 59% and 81%, respectively
Winquist (2000)23 Prognostic cohort - 206 bacteriologically verified PTB patients, 168 were followed up for 3 years, 149 discharged to ambulatory treatment Initially attending hospital clinic Guinea-Bissau, then discharged to ambulatory treatment At 36 months, of 130 patients discharged to follow ambulatory treatment and alive > 9 months after diagnosis, 23 (17.7%) died over the next 27 months
Cox (2006)24 Retrospective, mixed duration and 40% previously treated, prognostic cohort, follow-up, median of 22 months from diagnosis, valid follow-up data obtained for 197 (92%) patients Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan, 213 patients who were sputum-smear-positive for TB, included in drug resistance survey and diagnosed consecutively in 2001–2002 from four districts (68% of eligible) Mortality - 48 (24%) of the 197 patients dead at the time of follow-up average of 15% (95% confidence interval, CI: 11% to 19%) dying per year after diagnosis (6% of 73 pan-susceptible cases and 43% of 55 MDR-PTB cases also died per year). 11 (41%) of the 27 patients defined as treatment failures had died; 37/170 (22%) of patients successfully treated had died
Shean (2008)26 Retrospective prognostic cohort study of 491 treated Chest hospital patients, Western Cape, South Africa. All MDR-TB patients starting treatment during 1992–2002. 491 (66%) of 747 MDR-TB patients received treatment with two or more second-line drugs Of 491 treated, 239 (49%) were cured or completed treatment; 68 (14%) died. Of 410 patients who had not transferred out or died during treatment for MDR-PTB, 281 (69%) had 2-year data available: 185 (66%) were cured or completed treatment; 32 (11%) were retreated for PTB and 64 (23%) died. Analysis of five-year outcomes of 154/233 (66%) patients who were treated in cohorts 1992–1998 and were known to be alive at the end of treatment revealed that 77 (50%) were alive, 14 (9%) had been re-treated for drug-susceptible PTB and 63 (41%) had died

EPTB, extrapulmonary tuberculosis; HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; MDR, multi-drug resistant; PYO, person–years of observation; TB, tuberculosis.