Bulletin of the World Health Organization

Accounting for model uncertainty in estimating global burden of disease

David M Vock, Elizabeth A Atchison, Julie M Legler, David RJ McClure, Jamie C Carlyle, Elysia N Jeavons & Anthony H Burton

Volume 89, Number 2, February 2011, 112-120

Table 3. Results obtained by means of Monte Carlo estimates from model-derived meta-analysis on five separate strataa

Stratification variable Estimated no. of rotavirus deathsb SE CI CI width BIC Posteriorc (%)
WHO model 527 000 26 800 475 000–580 000 105 000 NA NA
Alternative WHO model 530 000 26 500 477 000–582 000 105 000 −101.6 57.268
Female life expectancy 537 000 32 900 473 000–601 000 128 000 −97.2 6.345
Male life expectancy 536 000 30 600 476 000–596 000 121 000 −97.5 7.372
Infant mortality rate (per 1 000 live births) 526 000 29 800 467 000–585 000 118 000 −100.2 28.438
Under-5 mortality rate (per 1 000 live births) 555 000 36 200 485 000–627 000 142 000 −87.8 0.058
% DTP3 immunization coverage among 1-year-olds 574 000 36 000 503 000–646 000 143 000 −92.1 0.495
Natural log of per capita GNI (in PPP international dollars) 609 000d 34 300 542 000–676 000 135 000 −85.8 0.021
% urban population 630 000d 52 900 527 000–734 000 206 000 −81.1 0.002
Model average 530 000 28 700 473 000–586 000 112 000 NA NA

CI, confidence interval; BIC, Bayesian information criterion; DTP3, third dose of diphtheria–tetanus–pertussis vaccine; GNI, gross national income; log, logarithm; NA, not applicable; PPP, purchasing power parity; SE, standard error; WHO, World Health Organization.

a The model average estimate averages across all the models here except for the WHO model.

b In children < 5 years old.

c This represents the posterior probability of all models except the WHO model.

d This estimate was outside the 95% CI in the World Health Organization model.

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