Bulletin of the World Health Organization

Accounting for model uncertainty in estimating global burden of disease

David M Vock, Elizabeth A Atchison, Julie M Legler, David RJ McClure, Jamie C Carlyle, Elysia N Jeavons & Anthony H Burton

Volume 89, Number 2, February 2011, 112-120

Table 4. Number of rotavirus deaths obtained through Monte Carlo estimates from the 20 burden of disease models with the lowest Bayesian information criterion (BIC)a

Variables included in model Deathsb (no.) SE CI CI width BIC Posteriorc (%)
Natural log of per capita GNI & infant mortality 513 000 43 700 428 000–599 000 171 000 −114.0 16.12
Infant mortality 534 000 43 900 448 000–620 000 172 000 −113.9 15.33
Under-5 mortality 549 000 41 400 468 000–630 000 162 000 −113.1 10.28
Female life expectancy 574 000 35 800 504 000–644 000 140 000 −112.7 8.42
Per capita GNI & infant mortality 522 000 43 700 436 000–607 000 171 000 −112.4 7.24
Male life expectancy 574 000 36 200 503 000–645 000 142 000 −112.3 6.89
Natural log of per capita GNI & female life expectancy 588 000d 36 000 517 000–658 000 141 000 −111.3 4.18
Natural log of per capita GNI & child life expectancy 545 000 40 800 465 000–625 000 160 000 −111.2 3.98
Per capita GNI & female life expectancy 575 000 35 200 506 000–644 000 138 000 −110.9 3.42
Natural log of per capita GNI, infant mortality, under-5 mortality 496 000 47 300 403 000–588 000 185 000 −110.6 2.94
Per capita GNI & under-5 mortality 547 000 41 100 466 000–627 000 161 000 −110.3 2.53
Per capita GNI & male life expectancy 575 000 35 600 506 000–645 000 140 000 −110.3 2.53
Natural log of per capita GNI & infant mortality & % urban population 506 000 44 900 418 000–594 000 176 000 −110.1 2.29
Infant mortality & % urban population 536 000 43 900 450 000–622 000 172 000 −110.0 2.18
Per capita GNI & infant mortality & under-5 mortality 492 000d 48 300 398 000–587 000 189 000 −109.9 2.08
Natural log of GNI & male life expectancy 585 000 36 600 513 000–657 000 144 000 −109.8 1.97
Per capita GNI & natural log of GNI & infant mortality 513 000 43 700 427 000–598 000 171 000 −109.8 1.97
Infant mortality & under-5 mortality 527 000 46 900 435 000–619 000 184 000 −109.7 1.88
Infant mortality & male life expectancy 525 000 52 500 422 000–628 000 206 000 −109.7 1.88
Infant mortality & female life expectancy 520 000 58 200 406 000–634 000 228 000 −109.7 1.88
Model average 540 000 49 800 443 000–638 000 195 000 NA NA

CI, confidence interval; GNI, gross national income; log, logarithm; NA, not applicable; SE, standard error.

a The model average estimate averages across all the models here.

b In children < 5 years old.

c This represents the posterior probability of all models.

d This estimate was outside the 95% CI in the World Health Organization model.

[an error occurred while processing this directive]