Exposing misclassified HIV/AIDS deaths in South Africa
Jeanette Kurian Birnbaum, Christopher JL Murray & Rafael Lozano
Volume 89, Number 4, April 2011, 278-285
Table 1. Rates of death from human immunodeficiency virus infection and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in South Africa, with and without correction for misclassification of cause of death, by year, 1996–2006
| Year | Deaths from HIV/AIDS |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original no.a (% of all deaths) | No. misclassifieda (% of corrected deaths) | Corrected no.a (uncertainty range) | Corrected % of all deaths (uncertainty range) | |
| 1996 | 8.9 (2.3) | 64.0 (87.8) | 72.9 (26.6–84.2) | 18.9 (7.2–28.1) |
| 1997 | 8.5 (2.0) | 74.1 (89.7) | 82.7 (32.9–92.2) | 19.7 (9.2–25.4) |
| 1998 | 9.5 (2.1) | 100.6 (91.4) | 110.0 (51.4–112.6) | 24.1 (13.7–30.0) |
| 1999 | 13.2 (2.7) | 121.2 (90.2) | 134.4 (73.3–138.5) | 27.1 (18.5–32.5) |
| 2000 | 13.5 (2.6) | 152.0 (91.9) | 165.4 (107.9–172.7) | 31.5 (24.5–37.5) |
| 2001 | 12.2 (2.1) | 188.3 (93.9) | 200.5 (140.4–208.4) | 35.3 (28.3–40.2) |
| 2002 | 13.5 (2.2) | 233.8 (94.5) | 247.3 (180.0–255.2) | 40.0 (32.2–43.8) |
| 2003 | 14.9 (2.2) | 272.1 (94.8) | 287.0 (213.7–293.9) | 43.1 (33.9–46.6) |
| 2004 | 17.4 (2.5) | 302.2 (94.6) | 319.5 (240.9–326.4) | 45.5 (35.9–48.5) |
| 2005 | 19.2 (2.6) | 314.8 (94.3) | 334.0 (259.9–339.8) | 46.0 (36.5–49.2) |
| 2006 | 20.1 (2.7) | 334.5 (94.3) | 354.5 (277.8–358.8) | 47.5 (37.9–50.2) |
a In thousands, scaled to Actuarial Society of South Africa total mortality estimates.