Bulletin of the World Health Organization

Planning for uncertainty: a European approach to informing responses to the severity of influenza epidemics and pandemics

Angus Nicoll

Volume 89, Number 7, July 2011, 542-544

Table 1. Seriousness matrix for pandemic influenza in Europe, 2009

Category Seriousness Potential actions and notes
Personal measures Amber Alert public to strengthen personal hygiene and early self isolation
Primary care pressures Amber Consider enacting back-up plans
Immunization Red Strong arguments for immunizing risk groups when available
Antiviral resistance Green No change in policy justifiable
Public health measures Green Proactive school closures not justifiable at present
Secondary care pressures Red Strong case for enacting surge capacity for intensive care and paediatric capacity
Special groups Red Pregnant women, handicapped children risk groups in addition to those with chronic illness
Social care pressures Green No case for enacting support plans
Critical cross-sector services Green No case for enacting support plans
Special features Red Rapid deaths in some young healthy adults and children – acute respiratory distress syndrome