Bulletin of the World Health Organization

Planning for uncertainty: a European approach to informing responses to the severity of influenza epidemics and pandemics

Angus Nicoll

Volume 89, Number 7, July 2011, 542-544

Table 2. Seriousness matrix for seasonal influenza in Europe, December 2010

Category Seriousness Potential actions and notes
Personal response Amber Alert public to strengthen personal hygiene and early self isolation
Primary care pressures Amber Consider enacting back-up plans
Immunization Red Recommend making clinical groups, including pregnant women, the top priority but continue immunizing older people
Antiviral resistance Green No change in policy justifiable but monitor resistance
Public health measures Green Not justified by the evidence
Secondary care pressures Red Some stresses on intensive care units consider back-up plans
Special groups Red Clinical risk groups
Social care pressures Green No case for enacting back-up to enact plans
Critical cross-sector services Green No threat – no case for enacting back-up plans
Special features Amber Need to respond to unexpected deaths in young healthy adults and children. Role of invasive bacterial infections?