Influenza-associated mortality in temperate and subtropical Chinese cities, 2003–2008
Luzhao Feng, David K Shay, Yong Jiang, Hong Zhou, Xin Chen, Yingdong Zheng, Lili Jiang, Qingjun Zhang, Hong Lin, Shaojie Wang, Yanyan Ying, Yanjun Xu, Nanda Wang, Zijian Feng, Cecile Viboud, Weizhong Yang & Hongjie Yu
Volume 90, Number 4, April 2012, 279-288B
Table 2. Influenza-associated excess deaths in eight cities, by age and codeda cause of death, China, 2003–2008
| Season | No. of epidemic weeks | Three northern citiesb (Serfling model) |
Three northern citiesb (negative binomial model) |
Five southern citiesc(negative binomial model) |
||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Totald |
Αge ≥ 65 years |
Totald |
Αge ≥ 65 years |
Totald |
Αge ≥ 65 years |
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| No. (CI) | Ratee (CI) | No. (CI) | % of total | No. (CI) | Ratee (CI) | No. (CI) | % of total | No. (CI) | Ratee (CI) | No. (CI) | % of total | |||||||
| R&C | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2002–03f | 7 | 1154 | 23.6 | 1030 | 89.2 | 480 | 9.8 | 461 | 96.0 | 562 | 5.3 | 534 | 95.0 | |||||
| (432–1960) | (8.8–40.1) | (430–1630) | (156–2098) | (3.2–42.9) | (156–1723) | (0–3539) | (0–33.2) | (0–3219) | ||||||||||
| 2003–04 | 7 | 1249 | 12.7 | 1136 | 90.9 | 945 | 9.6 | 918 | 97.1 | 1186 | 5.5 | 1146 | 96.6 | |||||
| (539–2056) | (5.5–20.9) | (536–1736) | (515–4360) | (5.2–44.2) | (515–3574) | (206–6844) | (1.0–32.0) | (206–6135) | ||||||||||
| 2004–05 | 9 | 1664 | 16.6 | 1588 | 95.4 | 1493 | 14.9 | 1432 | 95.9 | 3018 | 14.0 | 2847 | 94.3 | |||||
| (807–2688) | (8.1–26.9) | (807–2368) | (732–4606) | (7.3–46.0) | (732–3868) | (790–8887) | (3.7–41.3) | (767–7984) | ||||||||||
| 2005–06 | 4 | 736 | 7.2 | 529 | 71.9 | 751 | 7.4 | 704 | 93.7 | 2020 | 9.3 | 1873 | 92.7 | |||||
| (256–1223) | (2.5–12.1) | (162–896) | (90–4138) | (0.9–40.8) | (90–3270) | (588–7441) | (2.7–34.3) | (565–6556) | ||||||||||
| 2006–07 | 6 | 1031 | 10.0 | 993 | 96.3 | 1450 | 14.1 | 1384 | 95.4 | 1379 | 6.3 | 1305 | 94.6 | |||||
| (430–1762) | (4.2–17.2) | (430–1557) | (490–4806) | (4.8–46.8) | (490–4010) | (67–6747) | (0.3–30.9) | (67–6021) | ||||||||||
| 2007–08 | 9 | 2296 | 22.1 | 2079 | 90.5 | 2309 | 22.2 | 2210 | 95.7 | 3018 | 13.6 | 2803 | 92.9 | |||||
| (1 278–3439) | (12.3–33.1) | (1 211–2946) | (1 198–6164) | (11.5–59.4) | (1 198–5238) | (760–9093) | (3.4–41.1) | (738–8176) | ||||||||||
| 2008–09f | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 2.1 | 104 | 93.7 | 310 | 2.8 | 292 | 94.2 | |||||
| (0–0) | (0–0) | (0–0) | (0–2157) | (0–41.4) | (0–1728) | (0–3165) | (0–28.3) | (0–2845) | ||||||||||
| Mean | 7 | 1355 | 13.4 | 1226 | 90.5 | 1257 | 12.4 | 1202 | 95.7 | 1916 | 8.8 | 1800 | 94.0 | |||||
| (624–2188) | (6.2–21.6) | (596–1855) | (530–4722) | (5.2–46.6) | (530–3902) | (402–7619) | (1.8–35.1) | (391–6823) | ||||||||||
| All-cause | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2002–03f | 7 | 1823 | 37.3 | 1527 | 83.7 | 748 | 15.3 | 695 | 92.9 | 700 | 6.6 | 598 | 85.4 | |||||
| (659–3164) | (13.5–64.7) | (633–2421) | (248–3496) | (5.1–71.5) | (248–2645) | (15–4503) | (0.1–42.3) | (15–3630) | ||||||||||
| 2003–04 | 6 | 1562 | 15.8 | 1297 | 83.0 | 1346 | 13.7 | 1219 | 90.6 | 1551 | 7.3 | 1285 | 82.8 | |||||
| (538–2707) | (5.5–27.5) | (530–2063) | (642–6941) | (6.5–70.4) | (642–5191) | (64–10 248) | (0.3–47.9) | (64–8226) | ||||||||||
| 2004–05 | 9 | 2322 | 23.2 | 2177 | 93.7 | 2154 | 21.5 | 2011 | 93.4 | 3829 | 17.8 | 3291 | 85.9 | |||||
| (1 012–3955) | (10.1–39.5) | (1 012–3341) | (1 026–7146) | (10.2–71.4) | (1 026–5587) | (568–13 077) | (2.6–60.8) | (564–10 611) | ||||||||||
| 2005–06 | 2 | 417 | 4.1 | 308 | 73.9 | 1103 | 10.9 | 1075 | 97.5 | 2604 | 12.0 | 2280 | 87.6 | |||||
| (43–821) | (0.4–8.1) | (34–582) | (194–6297) | (1.9–62.1) | (194–4795) | (551–10 968) | (2.5–50.6) | (544–8660) | ||||||||||
| 2006–07 | 2 | 515 | 5.0 | 458 | 89.0 | 2026 | 19.7 | 1888 | 93.2 | 1753 | 8.0 | 1511 | 86.2 | |||||
| (179–925) | (1.7–9.0) | (179–738) | (618–7241) | (6.0–70.5) | (618–5655) | (14–9864) | (0.1–45.2) | (14–7843) | ||||||||||
| 2007–08 | 10 | 3721 | 35.8 | 3170 | 85.2 | 3397 | 32.7 | 3198 | 94.1 | 3844 | 17.4 | 3355 | 87.3 | |||||
| (1 857–5802) | (17.9–55.9) | (1 733–4606) | (1 778–9563) | (17.1–92.1) | (1 778–7614) | (646–13 101) | (2.9–59.2) | (641–10 746) | ||||||||||
| 2008–09f | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 177 | 3.4 | 177 | 100.0 | 397 | 3.5 | 345 | 86.9 | |||||
| (0–0) | (0–0) | (0–0) | (0–3613) | (0–69.3) | (0–2721) | (0–3876) | (0–34.6) | (0–2967) | ||||||||||
| Mean | 6 | 1727 | 17.0 | 1489 | 86.3 | 1825 | 18.0 | 1711 | 93.7 | 2446 | 11.3 | 2111 | 86.3 | |||||
| (715–2896) | (7.1–28.6) | (687–2292) | (751–7383) | (7.4–72.9) | (751–5701) | (310–10 940) | (1.4–50.4) | (307–8781) | ||||||||||
CI: 95% confidence interval; R&C; respiratory and circulatory disease.
a International statistical classification of diseases and related health problems, tenth revision.28
b Dalian, Qingdao and Zhaoyuan.
c Guangzhou, Ningbo, Shanghai, Wuhan and Yichang.
d The sum of the estimates of excess influenza-associated deaths for the people aged < 65 years and the people ≥ 65 years.
e In deaths per 100 000.
f Because the study was based on data collected between the start of 2003 and the end of 2008, only the results for the last half of the 2002–03 season (i.e. January 2003 to June 2003) and the first half of the 2008–09 season (i.e. July 2008 to December 2008) are included.