Bulletin of the World Health Organization

Influenza-associated mortality in temperate and subtropical Chinese cities, 2003–2008

Luzhao Feng, David K Shay, Yong Jiang, Hong Zhou, Xin Chen, Yingdong Zheng, Lili Jiang, Qingjun Zhang, Hong Lin, Shaojie Wang, Yanyan Ying, Yanjun Xu, Nanda Wang, Zijian Feng, Cecile Viboud, Weizhong Yang & Hongjie Yu

Volume 90, Number 4, April 2012, 279-288B

Table 2. Influenza-associated excess deaths in eight cities, by age and codeda cause of death, China, 2003–2008

Season No. of epidemic weeks Three northern citiesb (Serfling model)
Three northern citiesb (negative binomial model)
Five southern citiesc(negative binomial model)
Totald
Αge ≥ 65 years
Totald
Αge ≥ 65 years

Totald
Αge ≥ 65 years
No. (CI) Ratee (CI) No. (CI) % of total No. (CI) Ratee (CI) No. (CI) % of total No. (CI) Ratee (CI) No. (CI) % of total
R&C
2002–03f 7 1154 23.6 1030 89.2 480 9.8 461 96.0 562 5.3 534 95.0
(432–1960) (8.8–40.1) (430–1630) (156–2098) (3.2–42.9) (156–1723) (0–3539) (0–33.2) (0–3219)
2003–04 7 1249 12.7 1136 90.9 945 9.6 918 97.1 1186 5.5 1146 96.6
(539–2056) (5.5–20.9) (536–1736) (515–4360) (5.2–44.2) (515–3574) (206–6844) (1.0–32.0) (206–6135)
2004–05 9 1664 16.6 1588 95.4 1493 14.9 1432 95.9 3018 14.0 2847 94.3
(807–2688) (8.1–26.9) (807–2368) (732–4606) (7.3–46.0) (732–3868) (790–8887) (3.7–41.3) (767–7984)
2005–06 4 736 7.2 529 71.9 751 7.4 704 93.7 2020 9.3 1873 92.7
(256–1223) (2.5–12.1) (162–896) (90–4138) (0.9–40.8) (90–3270) (588–7441) (2.7–34.3) (565–6556)
2006–07 6 1031 10.0 993 96.3 1450 14.1 1384 95.4 1379 6.3 1305 94.6
(430–1762) (4.2–17.2) (430–1557) (490–4806) (4.8–46.8) (490–4010) (67–6747) (0.3–30.9) (67–6021)
2007–08 9 2296 22.1 2079 90.5 2309 22.2 2210 95.7 3018 13.6 2803 92.9
(1 278–3439) (12.3–33.1) (1 211–2946) (1 198–6164) (11.5–59.4) (1 198–5238) (760–9093) (3.4–41.1) (738–8176)
2008–09f 0 0 0 0 0 111 2.1 104 93.7 310 2.8 292 94.2
(0–0) (0–0) (0–0) (0–2157) (0–41.4) (0–1728) (0–3165) (0–28.3) (0–2845)
Mean 7 1355 13.4 1226 90.5 1257 12.4 1202 95.7 1916 8.8 1800 94.0
(624–2188) (6.2–21.6) (596–1855) (530–4722) (5.2–46.6) (530–3902) (402–7619) (1.8–35.1) (391–6823)
All-cause
2002–03f 7 1823 37.3 1527 83.7 748 15.3 695 92.9 700 6.6 598 85.4
(659–3164) (13.5–64.7) (633–2421) (248–3496) (5.1–71.5) (248–2645) (15–4503) (0.1–42.3) (15–3630)
2003–04 6 1562 15.8 1297 83.0 1346 13.7 1219 90.6 1551 7.3 1285 82.8
(538–2707) (5.5–27.5) (530–2063) (642–6941) (6.5–70.4) (642–5191) (64–10 248) (0.3–47.9) (64–8226)
2004–05 9 2322 23.2 2177 93.7 2154 21.5 2011 93.4 3829 17.8 3291 85.9
(1 012–3955) (10.1–39.5) (1 012–3341) (1 026–7146) (10.2–71.4) (1 026–5587) (568–13 077) (2.6–60.8) (564–10 611)
2005–06 2 417 4.1 308 73.9 1103 10.9 1075 97.5 2604 12.0 2280 87.6
(43–821) (0.4–8.1) (34–582) (194–6297) (1.9–62.1) (194–4795) (551–10 968) (2.5–50.6) (544–8660)
2006–07 2 515 5.0 458 89.0 2026 19.7 1888 93.2 1753 8.0 1511 86.2
(179–925) (1.7–9.0) (179–738) (618–7241) (6.0–70.5) (618–5655) (14–9864) (0.1–45.2) (14–7843)
2007–08 10 3721 35.8 3170 85.2 3397 32.7 3198 94.1 3844 17.4 3355 87.3
(1 857–5802) (17.9–55.9) (1 733–4606) (1 778–9563) (17.1–92.1) (1 778–7614) (646–13 101) (2.9–59.2) (641–10 746)
2008–09f 0 0 0 0 0 177 3.4 177 100.0 397 3.5 345 86.9
(0–0) (0–0) (0–0) (0–3613) (0–69.3) (0–2721) (0–3876) (0–34.6) (0–2967)
Mean 6 1727 17.0 1489 86.3 1825 18.0 1711 93.7 2446 11.3 2111 86.3
(715–2896) (7.1–28.6) (687–2292) (751–7383) (7.4–72.9) (751–5701) (310–10 940) (1.4–50.4) (307–8781)

CI: 95% confidence interval; R&C; respiratory and circulatory disease.

a International statistical classification of diseases and related health problems, tenth revision.28

b Dalian, Qingdao and Zhaoyuan.

c Guangzhou, Ningbo, Shanghai, Wuhan and Yichang.

d The sum of the estimates of excess influenza-associated deaths for the people aged < 65 years and the people ≥ 65 years.

e In deaths per 100 000.

f Because the study was based on data collected between the start of 2003 and the end of 2008, only the results for the last half of the 2002–03 season (i.e. January 2003 to June 2003) and the first half of the 2008–09 season (i.e. July 2008 to December 2008) are included.