Effectiveness of a no-sex or safe-sex month in reducing HIV transmission
Benjamin Armbruster & Aaron M Lucas
Volume 90, Number 7, July 2012, 504-512
Table 3. Main results from the sensitivity analysis of the model of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission in Kenya, South Africa and Swaziland
| Scenario | Percentage of new infections seen in the model without any intervention that was averted |
||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenya |
South Africa |
Swaziland |
|||||||||||||||
| Test |
Alternative |
Test |
Alternative |
Test |
Alternative |
||||||||||||
| 1 year | 5 years | 1 year | 5 years | 1 year | 5 years | 1 year | 5 years | 1 year | 5 years | 1 year | 5 years | ||||||
| 0. Basecase | 9.44 | 10.75 | 9.21 | 10.54 | 9.28 | 10.08 | 9.00 | 9.87 | 9.18 | 9.96 | 9.04 | 9.86 | |||||
| 1. Intervention occurs in mid-year | 9.06 | 10.29 | 9.21 | 10.54 | 8.84 | 9.65 | 9.00 | 9.87 | 8.26 | 9.64 | 9.04 | 9.86 | |||||
| 2. Intervention occurs at the end of the year | 8.27 | 9.90 | 9.21 | 10.54 | 8.19 | 9.33 | 9.00 | 9.87 | 8.26 | 9.38 | 9.04 | 9.86 | |||||
| 3. 50% compliancea | 4.77 | 5.47 | 4.63 | 5.33 | 4.68 | 5.10 | 4.52 | 4.98 | 4.63 | 5.04 | 4.54 | 4.97 | |||||
| 4. Two-week interventiona | 4.40 | 5.04 | 4.26 | 4.91 | 4.32 | 4.71 | 4.16 | 4.58 | 4.27 | 4.65 | 4.18 | 4.58 | |||||
| 5. Two-month interventiona | 18.53 | 20.83 | 18.25 | 20.61 | 18.24 | 19.68 | 17.88 | 19.44 | 18.06 | 19.48 | 17.94 | 19.44 | |||||
| 6. Three-month acute stage, σ1 | 9.79 | 11.16 | 9.41 | 10.89 | 9.60 | 10.40 | 9.16 | 10.14 | 9.50 | 10.28 | 9.21 | 10.14 | |||||
| 7. More infectious acute stage λ1 | 10.56 | 12.04 | 10.26 | 11.94 | 10.33 | 11.08 | 9.85 | 10.95 | 10.21 | 10.98 | 9.96 | 11.00 | |||||
| 8. I5 contributes nothing to new infections, λ5 | 10.46 | 12.90 | 9.93 | 12.50 | 10.22 | 11.82 | 9.60 | 11.41 | 10.12 | 11.77 | 9.68 | 11.52 | |||||
| 9. I5 is more infectious, λ5 | 9.25 | 10.38 | 9.07 | 10.19 | 9.10 | 9.77 | 8.89 | 9.60 | 8.99 | 9.62 | 8.91 | 9.55 | |||||
| 10. I5 is shorter, with σ5–1 set to 9 months | 9.78 | 11.46 | 9.47 | 11.20 | 9.59 | 10.64 | 9.22 | 10.39 | 9.46 | 10.45 | 9.24 | 10.32 | |||||
| 11. Number initially in acute stage doubled | 9.93 | 10.86 | 9.21 | 10.53 | 9.77 | 10.18 | 9.00 | 9.86 | 9.65 | 10.04 | 9.03 | 9.84 | |||||
| 12. Number initially in treatment doubled | 9.46 | 10.84 | 9.23 | 10.63 | 9.33 | 10.32 | 9.06 | 10.10 | 9.27 | 10.36 | 9.13 | 10.24 | |||||
a For scenarios that affect the duration of the intervention, the transmission with the alternative intervention was reduced comparably.
Note: For scenarios that affected the status quo, α was recalibrated.