Bulletin of the World Health Organization

Estimating the measles effective reproduction number in Australia from routine notification data

May Chiew, Heather F Gidding, Aditi Dey, James Wood, Nicolee Martin, Stephanie Davis & Peter McIntyre

Volume 92, Number 3, March 2014, 171-177

Table 1. Estimation of the effective reproduction number (R) in Australia annually during 2009–2011

Datum R (95% CI)
2009 2010 2011
Proportion of imported cases 0.66 (0.57–0.75) 0.55 (0.43–0.67) 0.68 (0.62–0.75)
Distribution of outbreak sizes 0.65 (0.49–0.80) 0.59 (0.41–0.78) 0.65 (0.53–0.76)
Distribution of outbreak with at least 3 cases 0.78 (0.57–1.00) 0.65 (0.40–0.90) 0.62 (0.47–0.76)
Distribution of generations of spread 0.38 (0.19–0.56) 0.50 (0.29–0.70) 0.50 (0.38–0.63)

CI, confidence interval.

Source: National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, Australia.