Health statistics and information systems

Projections of mortality and causes of death,
2015 and 2030

The global and regional projections of mortality by cause for years 2015 and 2030 were carried out in 2012 based on the GHE2012 estimates of causes of death for 2011. Earlier projections from 2004 to 2030 (see links to right) were updated using the estimates of deaths by cause for year 2011 as a starting-point, together with revised projections of HIV deaths prepared by UNAIDS and WHO, and revised forecasts of economic growth by region published by the World Bank (baseline scenario). For further information on these estimates and on data sources and methods, refer to The global burden of disease: 2004 update and to the published paper here. It is intended to update these projections soon using the most recent GHE2015 estimates for year 2015 as a starting point.