Health statistics and information systems

Projections of mortality and burden of disease, 2002-2030

Revised global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for 2005, 2015 and 2030 are provided below. The GBD estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002 are used as a starting point for these projections. The revisions are documented in a working paper, together with references to published papers on data sources and methods. Detailed results for projected deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) can be downloaded as Excel spreadsheets.

MORTALITY - BASELINE SCENARIO


STANDARD DALYs (3% DISCOUNTING, AGE WEIGHTS) - BASELINE SCENARIO


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