Projections of mortality and burden of disease, 2002-2030
Revised global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for 2005, 2015 and 2030 are provided below. The GBD estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002 are used as a starting point for these projections. The revisions are documented in a working paper, together with references to published papers on data sources and methods. Detailed results for projected deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) can be downloaded as Excel spreadsheets.
MORTALITY - BASELINE SCENARIO
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Deaths by WHO region
xls, 1.47Mb
Projected deaths for 2005, 2015 and 2030 by WHO Region under the baseline scenario. -
Deaths by income group
xls, 1.14Mb
Projected deaths for 2005, 2015 and 2030 by country income group under the baseline scenario.
STANDARD DALYs (3% DISCOUNTING, AGE WEIGHTS) - BASELINE SCENARIO
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DALYs by WHO region
xls, 1.54Mb
Projected DALYs for 2005, 2015 and 2030 by WHO Region under the baseline scenario -
DALYs by income group
xls, 1.16Mb
Projected DALYs for 2005, 2015 and 2030 by country income group under the baseline scenario.