Health statistics and information systems

Projections of mortality and burden of disease, 2004-2030

Revised global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for 2008, 2015 and 2030 are provided below. Previous projections from 2002 to 2030 (see links to right) have been updated using the GBD 2004 estimates as a starting-point, together with updated projections of HIV deaths prepared by UNAIDS and WHO, and updated forecasts of economic growth by region published by the World Bank. For further information on these estimates and on data sources and methods, refer to The global burden of disease: 2004 update.

MORTALITY - BASELINE SCENARIO

2008
2015
2030

STANDARD DALYs (3% DISCOUNTING, AGE WEIGHTS) - BASELINE SCENARIO

2008
2015
2030

MORTALITY - OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO

2008
2015
2030

STANDARD DALYs (3% DISCOUNTING, AGE WEIGHTS) - OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO

2008
2015
2030

MORTALITY - PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO

2008
2015
2030

STANDARD DALYs (3% DISCOUNTING, AGE WEIGHTS) - PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO

2008
2015
2030