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Case study on estimating HIV infection in a concentrated epidemic: lessons from Indonesia

UNAIDS/WHO working group on global HIV/AIDS/STI surveillance

6 October 2004

ISBN 92 9173 359 8

Information from the second generation surveillance system provided an opportunity for Indonesia to make more reliable estimates of the number of people infected with HIV. In 2002, the Ministry of Health began a process that led to vastly more informative estimates of the number of people at risk of contracting HIV in Indonesia, and the number currently infected with the virus. The technical details of the estimates have been published in Indonesian and English. This document focuses on the process that the country undertook in developing its estimates, discussing some of the challenges faced, the decisions made and the lessons learned. Thanks to Indonesia for sharing its experiences, and hopes that other countries with HIV epidemics concentrated in populations with high-risk behaviour will benefi t by adopting a similar estimation process.