Vaccine forecasting
Estimating vaccine annual needs
Key responsibilities of vaccine management include accurate estimations of vaccine needs and ordering adequate stock following the elivery schedule in conformity with the cold chain capacity. There are three methods commonly used for estimating vaccines needs:
- Estimates based on target population;
- Estimates based on previous consumption;
- Estimates based on the size of immunization sessions.
Method based upon target population
Estimating vaccine needs on the basis of target population requires the following data:
- Target population
- Number of doses required for the antigen, per the immunization schedule
- Projected immunization coverage
- Projected vaccine wastage factor
- Annual needs