Estimating vaccine needs for multi year planning
Multi-year planning typically covers a three to five year period. The method recommended for estimating vaccine needs for multi-year planning is based upon the target population and is linked to the immunization strategies that have been defined. Multi-year planning should be made for routine and supplementary immunization activities.
For each activity, the estimations should include:
- injection equipment to comply with the bundling principle;
- storage capacity required for vaccines, diluents and immunization-related materials;
A template is available for a five year forecast of immunization supplies.
The following data items are required for multi-year planning of vaccine needs:
- The country demographic data: baseline total population, annual growth rate, and proportion of target group (children 0-11 months, pregnancies, etc.). Calculations will be made each year based on these data.
- Targeted immunization coverage: the projected immunization coverage for the first dose of each antigen, and the expected drop out rate for antigens with multiple doses.
- Number of doses in the immunization schedule: indicate the figure for each vaccine and year as appropriate. Consider eventual introduction of a new vaccine.
- Expected wastage rates: indicate projected wastage figure for each vaccine and year as expected in the multi-year plan. Consider eventual introduction of a new vaccine.
- Vaccine formulation and presentations: specify for each vaccine the expected vial size to be ordered, consider eventual changes in vaccine presentations.
The template provides the following outputs as the result of calculations:
- The total vaccine doses needed for activities as planned each year;
- The total number of injection materials needed (auto-disable syringes for injections, syringes for dilution and safety boxes);
- The estimated total cost of vaccines and injection equipment;
- The total net storage volume of vaccines and other immunization-related items;
- The total net volume of cold chain required and dry storage based on the number of supplies expected per year.