From malaria control to malaria elimination: a manual for elimination scenario planning
Since 2000, there has been a 42% reduction in malaria mortality rates globally, and a 49% decline in the WHO African Region. This progress has led many malaria-endemic countries, even those with historically high burdens of malaria, to explore the possibility of accelerating towards elimination.
The elimination scenario planning (ESP) manual provides malaria-endemic countries with a comprehensive framework to assess different scenarios for moving towards this goal, depending on programme coverage and funding availability. It also helps countries set realistic timelines and provides essential knowledge for strategic planning in the long term.
The manual was produced in collaboration with colleagues from the Clinton Health Access Initiative, Imperial College London, Johns Hopkins University, the University of Southampton and the Global Health Group at the University of California, San Francisco.
The ESP manual can be used in conjunction with malaria transmission modelling software to better understand what levels of intervention coverage might be needed to make elimination possible. Malaria Tools, available from Imperial College London, is a malaria intervention model which has been tested as a means to carry out calculations suggested in the manual.
Further information on how mathematical modelling can help inform malaria control programmes and policies is available through the Roll Back Malaria Progress and Impact Series publication Mathematical modelling to support malaria control and elimination.
WHO guidance for countries in the elimination programme phase on how to conduct malaria elimination programme activities can be found in the WHO publication Malaria elimination: A field manual for low and moderate endemic countries.