Adult mortality (probability of dying between 15 to 60 years per 1000 population)
Rationale for use
Disease burden from non-communicable diseases among adults - the most economically productive age span - is rapidly increasing in developing countries due to ageing and health transitions. Therefore, the level of adult mortality is becoming an important indicator for the comprehensive assessment of the mortality pattern in a population.
Definition
Probability that a 15 year old person will die before reaching his/her 60th birthday.
Associated terms
The probability of dying between the ages of 15 and 60 years (per 1 000 population) per year among a hypothetical cohort of 100 000 people that would experience the age-specific mortality rate of the reporting year.
Life table
Data sources
- Civil or sample registration: Mortality by age and sex are used to calculate age specific rates.
- Census: Mortality by age and sex tabulated from questions on recent deaths that occurred in the household during a given period preceding the census (usually 12 months).
- Census or surveys: Direct or indirect methods provide adult mortality rates based on information on survival of parents or siblings.
Methods of estimation
Empirical data from different sources are consolidated to obtain estimates of the level and trend in adult mortality by fitting a curve to the observed mortality points. However, to obtain the best possible estimates, judgement needs to be made on data quality and how representative it is of the population. Recent statistics based on data availability in most countries are point estimates dated by at least 3-4 years which need to be projected forward in order to obtain estimates of adult mortality for the current year.
When no adequate source of age-specific mortality exists, the life table is derived as described in the life expectancy indicator.
Disaggregation
By sex, location (urban/rural, major regions/provinces) and socio-economic characteristics (e.g. education, wealth quintile). Censuses and surveys provide such detail; civil registration data usually does not include socio-economic variables but can provide the other disaggregations.
References
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Methods for estimating adult mortality
Methods for estimating adult mortality. United Nations Population Division, July 2002 (ESA/P/WP.175).
Database
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WHO Mortality Database: Tables
WHO Mortality Database: Civil registration data
Comments
There is a dearth of data on adult mortality, notably in low income countries. Methods to estimate adult mortality from censuses and surveys are retrospective and possibly subject to considerable measurement error.