Probability of dying (per 1000) between ages 15 and 60 years (adult mortality rate)
Rationale for use
Adult mortality is an important indicator of Burden of Disease (BOD) during the most economically productive age span.
Definition
Probability that a 15 year old will die before reaching his/her 60th birthday.
Associated terms
The probability of dying between the ages of 15 and 60 years (per 1000 population) per year among a hypothetical cohort of 100 000 people that would experience the age-specific mortality rate of the reporting year.
A life table presents a set of tabulations that describe the probability of dying, the death rate and the number of survivors for each age or age group. Accordingly, life expectancy at birth is an output of a life table.
Data sources
Vital registration, census and surveys: Age-specific mortality rates required to compute life expectancy at birth.
Methods of estimation
WHO has developed a model life table based on about 1800 life tables from vital registration judged to be of good quality.
For countries with vital registration, the level of completeness of recorded mortality data in the population is assessed and mortality rates are adjusted accordingly. Where vital registration data for 2003 were available, these were used directly to construct the life table. For countries where the information system provided a time series of annual life tables, parameters from the life table were projected using a weighted regression model, giving more weight to recent years. Projected values of the two life table parameters were then applied to the modified logit life table model, where the most recent national data provided an age pattern, to predict the full life table for 2003.
In case of inadequate sources of age-specific mortality rates, the life table is derived from estimated under-5 mortality rates and adult mortality rates that are applied to a global standard (defined as the average of all the 1800 life tables) using a modified logit model.
Disaggregation
By age and sex.
References
-
Modified logit life table system: principles, empirical validation and application
Murray CJL, et al. Modified logit life table system: principles, empirical validation and application. Population Studies 2003, 57(2):1-18. -
The World Health Report 2005 - make every mother and child count
The World Health Report 2005: make every mother and child count. Geneva, World Health Organization, 2005.
Database
-
WHO Mortality Database
The data available on this web site comprise deaths registered in national vital registration systems, with underlying cause of death as coded by the relevant national authority.
Comments
There is a dearth of data on adult mortality, notably in low income countries. Methods to estimate adult mortality from censuses and surveys are retrospective and possibly subject to considerable measurement error.