Forecasting the global shortage of physicians: an economic- and needs-based approach

WHO Bulletin

Richard M Scheffler, Jenny X Liu, Yohannes Kinfu, Mario R Dal Poz

Publication details

Number of pages: 10
Publication date: 2008
Languages: English


This paper projects the size of the future global need for demand and supply of physicians to year 2015 - the target date for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

Projections suggest that "by the year 2015, the global supply of physicians will be roughly in balance with demand, while a significant surplus will arise according to the needs-based model. However, regional trends show that distributional problems will likely persist. More than any other region of the world, Africa will likely experience most of the physician shortages in 2015."