Physician supply forecast: better than peering in a crystal ball?

Peer reviewed article

Dominique Roberfroid, Christian Leonard, Sabine Stordeur

Publication details

Number of pages: 13
Publication date: 2009
Languages: English


This paper discusses the four main approaches for physician supply forecast and analyzes the methodology-related issues.

Few forecasting approaches were identified. The supply projection approach defines the necessary inflow to maintain or to reach in the future an arbitrary predefined level of service offer. The demand-based approach estimates the quantity of health care services used by the population in the future to project physician requirements. The needs-based approach involves defining and predicting health care deficits so that they can be addressed by an adequate workforce.