The probability that a child aged 5 dies before reaching its 15th birthday.

Most frequently used methods using the above-mentioned data sources are as follows: • Civil registration: Number of deaths at age 5-14 and population of the same age are used to calculate death rates which are then converted into age-specific probability of dying. • Census: Censuses often include questions on household deaths in the last 12 months, which can be used to calculate mortality estimates for children aged 5-14. • Surveys: Mortality estimates of children aged 5-14 can be derived from the full birth history module which contains a series of detailed questions on each child a woman has given birth to during her lifetime. The full birth histories were used to estimate the probability of dying in children aged 5 to 14 (10q5) for three reference periods prior to each survey (0-3 years prior to the survey, 4-7 years, and 8-11 years). Summary birth histories collected in censuses and surveys were not included, because indirect demographic methods used to convert such data into mortality indices were originally designed to estimate mortality in children below age 5, and there has been little assessment of the performance of these indirect approaches when applied to older children

Impact

 The statistical model developed for under-five mortality (Bayesian B-splines bias-adjusted model – or B3 model) was used to obtain a smooth trend curve averaging over the estimates and accounting for potential outliers and biases in data series. (see http://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.wrapper.imr?x-id=2712 for more detailed explanation).  

Global and regional estimates are derived from numbers of estimated deaths and population for age groups 5-14 year, aggregated by relevant region.

Deaths per 1000 live population

3

Annual

Annual