Preparing for containment and mitigation of pandemic H5N1 influenza, Uses of statistical and mathematical modeling

14 November 2024 13:00 – 18:00 CET

Virtual meeting on Thursday, 14 November 2024 from 13:00 to 18:00 CET (Geneva time)         

Influenza H5 pathogens have been included in the list of priority pathogens by the WHO R&D Blueprint1. To coordinate efforts for containment and mitigation of H5N1, and especially to evaluate the efficacy of vaccines and therapeutics, a mathematical modelling group has been created in the R&D Blueprint and is organizing this virtual consultation to describe how statistical and mathematical models can aid in dealing with this pandemic threat.

OBJECTIVES

  • Outline of the current pandemic threat and potential containment or mitigation of influenza A (H5N1) or some other variant
  • Understand the analytical and statistical tools available and how to apply them to containment efforts
  • Understand the current mathematical modeling tools available and how to apply them to containment and mitigation efforts
  • Describe what new analytic and mathematical models need to be developed and integrated into the response to pandemic influenza A(H5N1)
  • Devise an approach to coordinate the analytical and modeling efforts both within and outside of WHO with a cohesive collaborative plan

 EXPECTED OUTCOMES

  • Development of an emergency response with analytical and mathematical methods for pandemic influenza A(H5N1)
  • Enhanced collaboration and partnerships
  • Key steps and timelines: Provide an outline of essential steps and timelines to address the identified research gaps and opportunities, ensuring a structured approach to advancing the research agenda

PRESENTATIONS

Introduction and objectives of the meeting

Background on the pandemic threat and potential mitigation of influenza A (H5N1)

Outline of the current threat and potential mitigation

The current global panzootic of H5N1 and its risk to humans

Global situations in humans

Estimates of H5N1 critical parameters from past transmission and current situation

Influenza A(H5) vaccines for preparedness and response

The status and potential effectiveness of influenza antiviral stockpiles

The potential effectivenessof NPIs

Characterizing a new virus in terms of critical epidemiological parameters

FFX investigation protocol and other planned studies

Summary of analytical and statistical tools available

Modelling the potential effectiveness of containment measures such as contact tracing with quarantine of contacts, ring vaccination and ring antiviral use during the emergence of the disease

Modelling for containement at the source

Testing and contact tracing in support of control of an outbreak

Model the best mitigation strategies with vaccines, antivirals, social distancing and other countermeasures, should a large global pandemic develop

Country level modelling of transmission and mitigation measures

Global modelling of transmission and mitigation measures

Low and middle income countries modelling

Gobal collaboration to respond to modeling of a H5N1 pandemic

Collaboratory - an offer to support collaboration

Summary of the meeting

Next steps