Antiretroviral medicines in low- and middle-income countries: forecasts of global and regional demand for 2020-2024

Overview

By the end of 2020, about 25 million people were receiving Antiretroviral treatment (ART) in low- and middle-income countries. Between 2017 and 2020, the number of people receiving treatment grew at an average of 1.6 million per year, indicating the progress of the test and start initiative. 

This report aims to provide countries and suppliers with estimates of the global market for antiretroviral (ARV) medicines in low- and middle-income countries for 2020-2024. It includes estimates of the global demand for active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and ARVs for adults receiving first-line ART to enable suppliers to plan and manage their manufacturing capacities accordingly. 

The report provides the estimated number of adults receiving first-line ART for individual ARV drugs by consolidating data from 3 key sources: extrapolation of historical WHO surveys on ARV drug use, the Global AIDS Monitoring report for 2019 ARV drug use, and the Clinton Health Access Initiative projected market share data for active pharmaceutical ingredients.  

The figures in the report are not intended to determine the definitive consumption of ARV drugs from 2020 to 2024; instead, they provide a range of possible demand for ARV drugs if current trends continue. The linear regression approach projects 29.5 million people receiving treatment by 2024, the country target approach projects 30.7 million, and the Fast-Track projection estimates 34.9 million. The average of these 3 approaches reaches 31.7 million.