EPI Logistics Forecasting Tool

Overview

Key functions

• Support new vaccine introduction planning through scenario analysis of different vaccine products, presentations and delivery strategies, enabling comparison of their impact on supply chain requirements and costs.
• Forecast multi-year requirements for vaccines, safe injection equipment, storage capacity and transportation resources based on programme growth and vaccine introduction plans.
• Assess cold chain and logistics capacity needs by identifying current and future storage and distribution gaps resulting from the introduction of new vaccines or programme expansion.
• Evaluate alternative supply chain scenarios, including changes in supply frequency and stock management policies, to optimize storage and transport capacity requirements.
• Estimate investment and operational costs associated with vaccines, injection supplies, cold chain equipment, transport, and dry storage infrastructure required for routine immunization and new vaccine introductions.
• Estimate recurrent logistics costs, including stock management, vaccine distribution and operation of cold chain equipment, to support budgeting and sustainability planning.
• Identify long-term trends and resource requirements to inform evidence-based investment decisions, national immunization strategies, and applications for donor support.

This tool enables countries to ensure that supply chain capacity, logistics systems and financial resources are adequately prepared to support the introduction and sustainable delivery of new vaccines while maintaining existing immunization services.